This World Cup is being talked up as one that could potentially be the most competitive one, and could also spring some surprises.
Spain and Brazil and clearly joint favourites of the tournament, while England is always talked up by the media. A very talented Argentina attack places them in the front as well, while it's never wise to rule out Germany, who, for the record, finished 2nd at the 2002 World Cup to Brazil, 3rd at the 2006 World Cup (Extra time loss to Italy) and 2nd at the Euro 2008 to Spain.
On the other hand, it's not very possible to find out who will be surprises; you won't call it a surprise if you expected it all along. But let me try to identify the potential surprises and shocks, and the potential winners.
This is the first time the World Cup lands on African soil, and it's good to start by looking at the African chances. But if you have noticed, I have already done that in my previous post. And my tip is Cameroon to go furthest, at the expense of Italy probably.
Though Italy can probably be regarded in a similar breath to Germany, it's hard to back them this time round despite their surprising run to the title last time round. Their buildup has been really unconvincing, and more importantly, despite their coach Marcello Lippi, the team is way too old. They cannot last through the whole length of the tournament, and their defence, as strong as a giant rock the last time, can be really rocky with the lack of pace.
Another country with a really poor buildup is, ironically, fellow 2006 World Cup finalists France. Unlike Italy, they are clearly not blessed with a really good coach. Domenech's decisions have been astounding to pros and public alike. He left Samir Nasri and Karim Benzema off the squad, and despite the clear scoring troubles in all 3 warmup matches, stuck with the same attack, without Thierry Henry.
However, passing the captaincy to Patrice Evra from Henry is a good decision. Henry doesn't thrive on the captaincy, as shown in his final season with Arsenal before moving to the Nou Camp. And the decision to shift to a more attacking 4-3-3 formation can be duly rewarded, provided Les Bleus can take control of it. They have the talents for it.
The frontline of Ribery-Henry-Gignac can prove to be exciting. Anelka and Cisse should be backup to Henry and Gignac. In midfield, Malouda-Toulalan-Gourcuff, with Alou Diarra backup to Toulalan and Diaby an alternate choice to Malouda or Gourcuff, France do have sufficient choices. And with the squad, it's not easy for 4 midfielders to play, as backup will be thin.
But then again, if France indeed proceeds to the semi-finals and beyond, it will be a huge surprise. But not impossible, provided the defence holds strong (Lloris is pretty reliable to date), and the attack gets clinical. There is still time, but I don't fancy Les Bleus' chances without Henry spearheading the attack. Domenech needs to make it right, real soon.
France is in a very group with no clear favourites. South Africa are on a hot run and have a much better chance of progressing than at 6 months ago. Thanks to Carlos Alberto Parreira, the former Brazil coach at the last World Cup. I have a feeling, given France's current woes, that South Africa will get the top spot in the group, while France finishes second. That is a possibility especially if France does not win their first game. I expect South Africa to win the opening game against Mexico in front of home support. But never discount Mexico or Uruguay. Nevertheless, I hope France makes it past the group stage and pick up their form.
England's chances may be badly hampered by Rio's loss to injury. Without Rio, there isn't an established 1st team central defender for the national team. Testing around needs to be done fast, within the group stage, which should be fairly easy. I have a feeling that the recalled Dawson, if given the chance, may perform well. But it will be a risk in big matches due to his inexperience. In those cases, Carragher should stand a better chance. And Rooney needs to stay fit throughout the tournament.
Germany, without Ballack, is similarly hampered like England. But the German team is traditionally a cohesive unit, a team with strong mental strength, and they will need strong opposition to be denied a long run again this time. But the title? Unlikely.
Spain is actually having an unconvincing buildup again, and despite their Euro 08 success, I am beginning to have doubts over whether they can build a brand like Brazil's. Could Euro 08 just be a one-off? It's likely that they are not going to win, for me, despite having one of the most talented lineups from defence to attack. They should proceed to the quarter-finals at least, but from there, depending on the opposition, I am not backing Spain to reach the final.
Brazil, however, is a really hot favourite this time because of Dunga. He has brought to the Brazilians the importance of defence, and with a fit Julio Cesar, and new faces in attack, though not so attention grabbing like Ronaldinho or Ronaldo or Robinho or Adriano, such as Luis Fabiano. And Kaka could be pivotal to their chances. I tip them to make it to the final.
And Netherlands. They are having a very hot buildup, and they have scintillating attacking talents on their team. But they could face one big problem. Teams which do extremely well in the warmup matches may have peaked too early. Just look at Argentina in the last World Cup. Their group matches were so brilliant, they were delivering fancy dream goals like the 24-pass one scored by Cambiasso, or Maxi's brilliant curling goal. But? They got stopped at the quarter finals.
Portugal are in the Group of Death, but in a change of mind, I think they will make it past the group stage nonetheless. They have been unconvincing through qualifying and warmup, but Ivory Coast are known as chokers despite having arguably the strongest African team. With Drogba doubtful, they might not progress.
There are some easy groups out there, and I can actually see New Zealand springing a surprise. There is even a small chance that 2 from NZ, Slovakia and Paraguay can progress, given Italy's woes. I just have no belief in this Italian team. They will have to stop Netherlands, though.
I know this is a very sketchy post, but I hope the summary will be better.
Brazil to make final
France to make at least semi-final
England/Germany to make semi-final
Spain to make quarter-final
Netherlands no further than quarter-final
Italy no further than Top 16
Portgual no further than Top 16
South Africa to make Top 16
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